Croatia World Cup 2026 Preview: Modrić, Kovačić, Gvardiol

Zlatko Dalić's Croatia Tactics: The 4-3-3 Explained

The base shape is a 4-3-3 in possession that compresses to a 4-2-3-1 against possession heavyweights. Mateo Kovačić (Manchester City, 32) is the single pivot — three years into his Etihad spell, Kovačić has become the deep-lying playmaker the system needs, replacing Marcelo Brozović in the role Brozović held at Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022. Ahead of him, Luka Modrić (AC Milan, 40) plays the right-side No. 8 with creative licence; Lovro Majer (Wolfsburg) or Mario Pašalić (Atalanta) takes the left-side No. 8.

Across the back, Dominik Livaković (Girona, on loan from Fenerbahçe) is the long-term goalkeeper — the same shootout specialist who saved three penalties from Japan in the Qatar 2022 Round of 16 and one from Brazil in the quarter-final. Joško Gvardiol (Manchester City, 24) is the centre-back the squad's defensive future is built on; his partner has rotated through Josip Šutalo (Ajax) and Martin Erlić (Sassuolo) as Dalić tests the post-Domagoj Vida back four. Borna Sosa (Ajax) is the first-choice left-back; the right-back rotates through Josip Stanišić (Bayern Munich) and Josip Juranović (Union Berlin).

The front three runs around Andrej Kramarić (Hoffenheim, 35) as the central reference, Ivan Perišić (PSV Eindhoven via Hajduk Split) at 36 still on the left, and a right-side rotation through Bruno Petković (Dinamo Zagreb), Marco Pašalić (Orlando City) and Petar Sučić (Inter Milan) as Dalić tests the post-Andrej Kramarić generation.

Luka Modrić: The Last World Cup at 40

This is the one tactical question that defines Croatia's tournament.

Modrić at 40 is still the squad's most reliable progressive passer and the tactical spine Dalić's whole 4-3-3 was built around. He is also, demonstrably, no longer a 90-minute presser. The shift since Qatar 2022 has been gradual: Modrić started every Croatia match in 2022 and played 90 in five of seven; in the 2025-26 international windows he has been substituted at 65-75 minutes in roughly two-thirds of matches and rested entirely from at least one of every two-friendly camps.

The tactical compromise Dalić has settled on through the qualifying cycle: Modrić starts every match Croatia expect to dominate the ball, plays 65-75 minutes, then exits when the match opens up. Against opponents who force Croatia to defend in waves (the 2018 France final and 2022 Argentina semi-final templates), Modrić has been used more as a closer — entering at the 60-minute mark with a fresh body for extra time. The 2026 plan reads similarly.

That this is almost certainly Luka Modrić's last World Cup raises the stakes on every selection. Modrić turns 41 in September 2026 — six weeks after the final — and has publicly framed the tournament as the natural close to his international career. The narrative weight pulls toward starts; the tactical evidence pulls toward managed minutes. Dalić is the first Croatia coach who has to balance that gap publicly rather than around it.

The Kovačić Pivot: Croatia's Structural Upgrade Since 2022

The clearest single squad change since Qatar 2022 is at No. 6. The 2022 setup used Marcelo Brozović at the deep-pivot — Brozović's last meaningful international tournament — backed up by an aging Mateo Kovačić who had been used as a No. 8 throughout his Chelsea years.

Kovačić's three seasons at Manchester City have rebuilt him into a true No. 6. The numbers are stark: in 2025-26 Premier League, Kovačić logged the third-most defensive duels won by any midfielder, the highest pass-completion percentage in the City squad behind Rodri, and the lowest turnover rate per 90 of any City midfielder under Pep Guardiola's recent rotation. He is, at 32, the most complete defensive midfielder Croatia have ever produced.

Tactically Kovačić does three things very well that no other Croatia midfielder can match. First, he protects the centre-back pair — the pass map of any 90 minutes shows him almost always on the line of the centre-circle, refusing to vacate that zone. Second, he wins the second ball at higher rate than any peer. Third, he distributes laterally with low-risk short passes that release Modrić or Majer to receive between the lines. The Brozović-to-Kovačić transition is the single most important reason Croatia's 2026 ceiling can match their 2018 and 2022 runs despite the rest of the squad aging.

The squad option behind him is Petar Sučić (Inter Milan, 22) — the next-generation pivot Dalić has tested through the qualifying cycle and a likely starter at the 2030 cycle's qualifying.

Joško Gvardiol: The Defensive Anchor of the Next Generation

Gvardiol at 24 is the youngest first-choice starter in Croatia's spine and the clearest evidence that Dalić has begun the transition to a post-Modrić generation while Modrić is still active. His Manchester City spell since 2023 has converted him from the high-upside RB Leipzig left-footed centre-back into a true positional defender capable of playing centre-back, left-back, or as the inverted full-back Pep Guardiola prefers.

For Croatia, Gvardiol's tactical value is twofold. First, he is the ball-progression centre-back the squad lacked in 2018 and 2022 — both tournaments featured Domagoj Vida as the senior partner, an excellent defender but limited progressive passer. Gvardiol's line-breaking pass volume per 90 is the highest of any Croatia centre-back in the last decade. Second, his pace at 24 lets Croatia compress higher up the pitch than the older 2022 setup could — Gvardiol can recover ground after a high line gets caught, which lets Dalić push the back four 5-7 yards higher than in the Vida era.

The partner question is open. Josip Šutalo (Ajax) has been the most-trialled option — left-footed pairing with Gvardiol in left-or-right CB rotation. Martin Erlić (Sassuolo) is the more conservative back-up. The 26-man squad will likely include all three.

Group L: The Path Through England, Panama and Ghana

Croatia's Group L draw is a 6/17 opener vs England in Dallas, then Panama in Toronto on 6/23, then Ghana in Philadelphia on 6/27. For the wider group context, Group L is the only one with a Pot 1 European seed (England), a Pot 2 European seed (Croatia), a Concacaf side (Panama) and an African side (Ghana) — a geographically maximal draw.

England vs Croatia: The Marquee Group L Fixture

England vs Croatia at Dallas Stadium on June 17, 2026 at 20:00 UTC is the highest-impact group fixture of Croatia's tournament. The historical context: England knocked Croatia out at Euro 2024 group stage (2-0); Croatia knocked England out at the Russia 2018 semi-final (2-1 extra time, Mario Mandžukić winner) and held them to a 1-1 group draw at Qatar 2022. The aggregate across the last four senior England vs Croatia matches: 2 England wins, 1 Croatia win, 1 draw — England's edge is recent but the World Cup record favours Croatia.

Tactically the England vs Croatia matchup is straightforward. England's Tuchel 4-2-3-1 with Bellingham as the No. 10 attacks exactly the half-space Modrić occupies. Whichever team wins the central battle — Kovačić-Modrić vs Rice-Bellingham — wins the match. Saka on England's right against Sosa is the marquee individual duel.

Panama is the matchday 2 rotation match. Thomas Christiansen's setup is a 4-4-2 deep block with Ismael Díaz (Liga MX) as the central reference. A 2-0 Croatia win is the median outcome; the risk is Croatia rotating Modrić out and the second-string midfield struggling against Panama's set-piece volume.

Ghana is the matchday 3 closer in Philadelphia. Otto Addo's side is faster than Croatia in transition but lacks the tactical organization to disrupt Croatia's possession game in 90 minutes. Croatia 2-1 is the realistic line. The match likely decides Group L final standings: a Croatia win paired with England beating Panama gives Croatia second place and a Round of 32 against the third-placed team from Groups A, B, F, G or H.

Set Pieces and Penalty Shootouts: Croatia's Tournament Edge

Croatia's 2018 and 2022 deep runs were decided as much by set pieces and penalty shootouts as by open-play tactics. Three of Croatia's four 2022 knockout-stage wins came from penalty shootouts — Japan in the Round of 16, Brazil in the quarter-final, Morocco in the third-place playoff. Livaković's 7 saved penalties across those three shootouts was the highest single-tournament shootout return in World Cup history.

Brazil vs Croatia at Qatar 2022 is the most replayed of the three. Brazil dominated regulation and extra time, took the lead through Neymar in the 105th minute, then conceded a Bruno Petković equaliser in the 117th. The shootout went 4-2 to Croatia: Marquinhos missing the decisive fourth Brazilian penalty after Livaković saved Rodrygo's opener. Brazil vs Croatia is now the modern reference point for "tournament Croatia" — a team that loses possession and territory but wins on the moments that matter. The 2026 squad spine that delivered that result — Modrić, Kovačić, Perišić, Kramarić, Petković, Livaković — remains intact.

The 2026 setup is unchanged in personnel. Livaković is the goalkeeper. The shootout takers across qualifying have been Modrić (the fixed first taker), Kramarić (typically third), Perišić (typically fifth) and Pašalić — the same 4-of-5 from Qatar 2022 plus a likely Kovačić insertion if the match has been long. Croatia's set-piece delivery is split between Modrić on the right and Perišić on the left; the aerial targets in the box are Kramarić, Petković (when on the field), Gvardiol and Šutalo.

Against Group L's three opponents, set-piece volume is likely to be high — England in particular have one of the tournament's best dead-ball delivery systems. The match-by-match set-piece duels are the under-priced storyline of Croatia's group stage.

The 2026 Realistic Ceiling

The base case for Croatia at the 2026 World Cup is a Round-of-32 win and a Round-of-16 exit to a Group A or Group D winner. The realistic ceiling is a third semi-final appearance in three consecutive World Cups (2018 final, 2022 third-place, 2026 semi-final) — a sequence no other nation outside the established European powers has produced in the modern era.

The downside risks are clear. The squad is older where it matters: Modrić 40, Perišić 36, Kramarić 35, Brozović 32, Kovačić 32. The cumulative fatigue load by the round of 16 is the kind of variable that decides 1-1 matches and penalty shootouts. The 2026 path is also longer than 2018's: the 48-team format adds a Round of 32 to the knockout calendar, meaning Croatia would need 4 knockout wins to reach a final vs the 3 wins they needed in Russia.

The single biggest swing factor is whether Modrić finishes the tournament uninjured at 40. The second is whether Gvardiol's defensive arc continues into the knockouts at the level he showed in qualifying. The third is whether Livaković retains his 2022 shootout form when the matches inevitably go to penalties.

For wider context, see our top-five title favourites, the dark-horse contenders, and the tactical previews for England and Argentina — Croatia's most likely Round of 32 / Round of 16 opponents on the bracket math.